Table 1 Calibrated screening parameter validation against observed detection rates, positive predictive values (PPV) and stage distributions
AGE: | 50–59 | 60–69 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detection rate | DCIS | BC | DCIS | BC | ||||
Target a (CI 95%) b | 0.59 (0.47–0.72) | 3.96 (3.65–4.29) | 0.86 (0.72–1.02) | 6.79 (6.38–7.22) | ||||
Model a | 0.63 | 3.98 | 0.95 | 6.55 | ||||
PPV | DCIS + BC | DCIS + BC | ||||||
Target (%) (CI 95%) b | 14.3 (13.3–15.4) | 31.3 (29.5–33.2) | ||||||
Model (%) | 14.5 | 32.4 | ||||||
Stage distribution | DCIS | BC local | BC non-local | DCIS | BC local | BC non-local | ||
Target (%) (CI 95%) b | 9.6 (7.8–11.6) | 57.4 (52.9–62.1) | 33.1 (29.7–36.7) | 11.3 (9.5–13.3) | 60.5 (56.3–65.0) | 28.2 (25.3–31.3) | ||
Model (%) | 9.1 | 59.0 | 31.9 | 10.1 | 63.7 | 26.2 | ||