Table 1 Study population characteristics and transition probabilities parameters inputs in model

Discount rate

5% (0%~8%)

Uniform

[25]

Life expectancy

78.2

Uniform

Supplementary Table 4

Population

 Age

35 (26,44)

Uniform

Clinical trial

 Male (%)

44% (39%,48%)

Uniform

Clinical trial

 Baseline BMI

35.2 (27.8,43.5)

Uniform

Clinical trial

Patient composition (%)

 Class I obesity without comorbid

0%

Uniform

 Class II obesity without comorbid

8%

Uniform

 Class I obesity with T2DM

0%

Uniform

 Class II obesity with T2DM

17%

Uniform

 Class I obesity with NAFLD

0%

Uniform

 Class II obesity with NAFLD

62%

Uniform

 Class I obesity with ALD

0%

Uniform

 Class II obesity with ALD

13%

Uniform

Epidemiological parameters

 Incidence of T2DM among class I obesity(per 1000 person-year)

16.4 (13.12,19.68)

Beta

α = 24.79; β = 3000.57

[55]

 Incidence of T2DM among class II obesity(per 1000 person-year)

32.23 (25.78, 35.45)

Beta

α = 24.58; β = 1513.09

[55]

 Incidence of NAFLD in obesity

0.52 (0.47, 0.56)

Beta

α = 19.09; β = 64.85

[46]

 Incidence of ALD in obesity

0.45 (0.39, 0.51)

Beta

α = 19.81; β = 79.36

[56]

 Incidence of CHD among class I obesity (per 1000 person-year)

5.44(4.35, 6.52)

Beta

α = 24.93; β = 9155.51

[57]

 Incidence of CHD among class II obesity (per 1000 person-year)

11.22(8.96, 13.46)

Beta

α = 24.85; β = 4416.51

[57]

 Incidence of stroke among class I obesity (per 1000 person-year)

11.96 (9.56, 14.35)

Beta

α = 24.85; β = 4143.42

[57]

 Incidence of stroke among class II obesity (per 1000 person-year)

16.17(12.93, 19.40)

Beta

α = 24.79; β = 3054.63

[57]

Transition probabilities

 Remission rate of HbA1c in class I obesity(9months %)

0.50(0.40, 0.60)

Beta

α = 15.38; β = 26.18

Clinical trial

 Remission rate of HbA1c in class II obesity(9months %)

0.67(0.53, 0.80)

Beta

α = 11.49; β = 10.63

Clinical trial

 Probability of diabetes to uncontrol diabetes

0.014 (0.01, 0.02)

Beta

α = 24.63; β = 1727.94

[58]

 Remission rate of FLD(6months %)

0.44 (0.35, 0.53)

Beta

α = 13.74; β = 17.99

[59]

 Probability of ALD to CC

0.14(0.08, 0.2)

Beta

α = 23.24; β = 320.55

[60]

 Probability of NAFLD to CC

0.03(0.024, 0.036)

Beta

α = 24.95; β = 12437.26

[61]

 Probability of FLD to HCC among class I obesity

0.007 ( 0.0029, 0.0066)

Beta

α = 24.91; β = 7534.48

[62]

 Probability of FLD to HCC among class II obesity

0.009 (0.007, 0.01)

Beta

α = 24.88; β = 5409.75

[62, 63]

 Probability of CC to DC

0.316 (0.25, 0.37)

Beta

α = 24.01; β = 609.84

[64]

 Probability of CC or DC to HCC

0.03 (0.007, 0.053)

Beta

α = 24.61; β = 1628.59

[64]

 Probability of DC to LT

0.0003 (0.00002, 0.0011)

Beta

α = 25; β = 166628.17

[65]

 Probability of HCC to LT

0.003 (0.0015, 0.0045)

Beta

α = 24.96; β = 16628.21

[65]

 Probability of CHD to MI among class I obesity (per 1000 person-year)

5.8 (4.64, 6.96)

Beta

α = 24.92; β = 8582.27

[66]

 Probability of CHD to MI among class II obesity

0.0081 (0.0052, 0.012)

Beta

α = 24.79; β = 3032.49

[23, 66]

 From uncontrol diabetes to death (per 1000 person-year)

42.2 (32.5, 52.5)

Beta

α = 24.46; β = 1146.92

[66]

 From DC to death(6.8 years)

0.5 (0.4, 0.6)

Beta

α = 23.71; β = 453.41

[61]

 From HCC to death

0.368 (0.376, 0.375)

Beta

α = 20.63; β = 102.12

[65]

 From LT to death

0.22 (0.176, 0.264)

Beta

α = 22.29; β = 191.71

[65]

 From Post-LT to death

0.048 (0.0384, 0.0576)

Beta

α = 24.38; β = 1003.83

[65]

 From MI to death (per 100,000 person-year)

60.29 (48.23, 72.34)

Beta

α = 25; β = 829286.43

[67]

 From stroke to death (per 100,000 person-year)

45.85 (36.68, 55.02)

Beta

α = 25; β = 1090474.04

[67, 68]