Table 1 Model inputs and variances: base-case and sensitivity analyses
Parameter | Value in the base case | Value in DSA, lower/uppera | PSA distribution used | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Analysis setting | ||||
Start age (year) | 51.9 | 40.1–63.7 | Normal | Mean age in the Korean population from QUEST trial [13] |
Time horizon | Lifetime | |||
Response and treatment persistence | ||||
Proportion of responders for dupilumab | 0.857 | 0.686–1.000 | Beta | Post-hoc analyses of QUEST trial for the Korean population [13] |
Annual long-term discontinuation rates for dupilumab | 0.107 | 0.089/0.125 | Gamma | Post-hoc analyses of QUEST trial for ITT population [5] |
Transition probability | ||||
Transition probabilities between disease-related sub-states | Detailed in Additional file 1: Table S1 | Dirichlet | Post-hoc analyses of QUEST trial for the Korean population [13] | |
Relative effect of experiencing a severe exacerbation beyond the trial period for dupilumab | 1.350 | 1.155–1.545 | Log-normal | Published data [14] |
Fatality rate for severe exacerbation | 0.049 | 0.039–0.058b | Beta | Published data using national health insurance claims data by HIRA [18] |
Proportions of the exacerbation treatment settings | Dirichlet | Administrative medical database from the hospital | ||
Office visit | 0.524 | |||
ED visit | 0.143 | 0.114, 0.171b | ||
Hospitalization | 0.333 | 0.267, 0.400b | ||
Utility weights | ||||
Utility for control-related states without exacerbation | Beta | Post-hoc analyses of QUEST trial for the Korean population [13] | ||
Controlled asthma | 0.907 | 0.811/1 | ||
Uncontrolled asthma | 0.795 | 0.653/0.937 | ||
Utility increment for treatment-related states | Normal | Post-hoc analyses of QUEST trial for the Korean population [13] | ||
Dupilumab (all patients) | + 0.023 | -0.100/0.146 | ||
Dupilumab (responders) | + 0.039 | -0.083/0.161 | ||
Disutility for exacerbation-related statesc | Normal | Post-hoc analyses of the QUEST trial for the ITT population [5] | ||
Moderate exacerbation | -0.125 | -0.135/-0.115 | ||
Severe exacerbation – Office visit | -0.161 | -0.176/-0.146 | ||
Severe exacerbation – ED visit | -0.164 | -0.290/-0.038 | ||
Severe exacerbation – Hospitalization | -0.186 | -0.311/-0.061 | ||
Duration with exacerbations (days) | Gamma | Post-hoc analyses of QUEST trial for the ITT population [5] | ||
For “Add-on dupilumab” | ||||
Moderate exacerbation | 17.2 | 16.4/18.0 | ||
Severe exacerbation – Office visit | 14.4 | 13.7/15.1 | ||
Severe exacerbation – ED visit | 13.2 | 10.0/16.4 | ||
Severe exacerbation – Hospitalization | 18.5 | 16.0/21.1 | ||
For “Background therapy alone” | ||||
Moderate exacerbation | 16.6 | 16.1/17.1 | ||
Severe exacerbation – Office visit | 18.0 | 17.2/18.7 | ||
Severe exacerbation – ED visit | 20.2 | 17.4/23.0 | ||
Severe exacerbation – Hospitalization | 28.0 | 22.0/34.1 | ||