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Table 1 Impact Analysis

From: Can adaptive clinical trials help to solve the productivity crisis of the pharmaceutical industry? - a scenario analysis

Impact

Variation of phase III transition probabilities

I (80%)

II (70%)

Overall trial success probability across all clinical phases

15.81%

13.37%

Cost per successful new drug

2190 million USD

2390 million USD

Cost savings per successful new drug compared to DiMasi et al. (2016)

370 million USD (−14.4%)

170 million USD (−6.6%)

Global cost reductions

14.4 bn USD

6.6 bn USD

Induced additional global R&D investments [lower; upper bound]

4.22 bn USD [2.12 bn;8.44 bn]

1.94 bn USD [0.970 bn; 3.87 bn]

Generated gain in life-years (in US) [lower; upper bound]

3.46 mill [1.74 mill; 6.93 mill]

1.58 mill [1.30 mill;3.17 mill]

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Health Economics Review

ISSN: 2191-1991

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